This module provides a forecasting tool that assists in the maintenance of appropriate warehouse stock levels. The user is allowed to create draft purchase orders using calculated and entered criteria that can be produced on a ‘What-if’ basis.

Reorder Quantities

The predicted demand is calculated using the following rules:

·        Base on previous years history.

·        Defaulted to 7-week period of current history analysis (default held on control table).

·        History analysis period override at time of draft order.

·        Seasonal and trend adjusted, over selected period.

·        Daily demand is derived from weekly figures.

The longer the period that the average is calculated over, then the ‘smoother’ the figures calculated. The shorter the period used, then the figures calculated are more reactive to current trends.

If no previous years history exists, then a straight line moving average will be used, based on the number of periods selected.

Dynamic Supplier Lead Time

The Dynamic Supplier Lead Time is based on the analysis of when Purchase Orders were received, against when they were expected.

The Purchase Order Receipt entry will record details of delivery days against scheduled days when the order line is completed or remaining quantity set to zero.

The last 7 purchase orders for the supplier will be analysed and the overall supplier performance rating will be derived. The number of purchase orders to be analysed will be held as an adjustable parameter.

The performance rating is calculated as a percentage of Schedules days against Actual delivery days.

Scheduled Purchase Orders

A supplier record will hold ‘start date’ and ‘cycle days’ information. This will be used to report on when a scheduled order is to be manually raised against the supplier.

Promotion Mapping

In order to assist the buyers in predicting demand not only based on previous history, but in conjunction with previous promotions, an option will be provided to highlight when promotions were applicable. A full history of promotion prices and dates is held within the Choise system.

It may be possible to look at previous history and determine what the effect of a promotion has had on the sales on a product. This would employ trending techniques immediately prior to and following the promotion, where the deviation from the expected can be quantified.

Drop Criteria

The Supplier/Product table allows for up to 5 pricing criteria. Each criterion holds a quantity range and cost price applicable. The cost price held on the Product table will always be the ‘Full Load’ price.

When Purchase Orders are placed, the cost price on each order line will be the price associated with the loaded quantity. On multiple product loads, the quantity is the total case quantity, and the cost prices are then re-calculated against the total quantity and not the specific item quantity.

Full Load Uplift

The main criteria for generating a product order is based on the analysis of warehouse issues history, stock on hand, stock on order and lead-time. Where an order is generated that does not complete a ‘Full Load’ (lorry load), the system will provide an option to ‘uplift’ the order, so as to fill a lorry. ‘Full Loads’ are necessary so as to attract the best price, as per the ‘Drop Criteria’.

In generating a ‘Full Load’ order, the system will re-calculate quantities required across all supplier products, not just those already on order.

Where Layers and Pallets are used for product items, the quantities will be further adjusted according to the number of cases per Layer or Pallet.

The ‘uplifted’ order may be more than a ‘Full Load’, and therefore, at this point the buyers will use their knowledge to fine tune the final order.